Monday, August 15, 2011

Heavily Invested in the Stock Market? Get Ready for the Rough Remnants of Summer

If you are heavily invested in stocks, you probably won’t like what you’re going to read, but you should pay attention! According to USA TODAY, there are unsettling similarities between the current state of the markets and their position at this time last year. You may recall that, early last summer, the Dow Jones average fell 13.6% before beginning a gradual recovery!

Among the factors behind last year’s market drop were fears of a “double-dip” recession, high, long-term unemployment and worries about the European debt crisis. Do those problems sound familiar? They should. We are facing those same challenges today. As if these aren’t enough, we are currently watching as the President and Congress attempt to strike a deal to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on its obligations for the first time in history. From an investor’s standpoint, this situation appears to be lose-lose; either the U.S. defaults, which would be catastrophic for the market, or the government continues to borrow money hand over fist, leading to future high inflation.

There are plenty of reasons to worry about the state of the stock market. While it’s impossible to exactly predict the future, many experts agree that a 10% downward correction is very probable.

These events remind us that the rules of investing have changed forever. Twenty years ago, simply investing into an index fund may have been a sound strategy. Unfortunately, since 2007, international equity markets have been incredibly volatile. Many people’s life savings disappeared down the drain as the stock market plunged. While the market has recovered to some extent, there is absolutely no reason to suggest that it is permanently back on course.

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